Thanks for this whopper of a post, I genuinely wasn't sure you'd manage to sweep over the entire planet for this time period, but you managed it very well, just as advertised. Both wide in scope as well as synthetic.
Stellar work as always Nemets! I'm loving the longform substack posts. But does this mean the end of the Twitter Spaces? They were great, I always caught up on them on youtube if I missed them live version
Oct 22, 2023·edited Oct 22, 2023Liked by Peter Nimitz
First of all, kudos! A major effort.
Now some potentially critical remarks on some fringe issues. Although I didn't have the time to trace many of your references to the "Saami" down to the actual mentions in the linked sources, I did get an uneasy feeling particularly at the point you referred to the Bolshoy Oleny Ostrov (BOO) findings.
I mean, "Saami/Sámi" today refer to certain groups of people speaking certain languages. So, in prehistorical context, it makes little sense to extend the use of the label to groups not likely to have spoken a Saamic, let alone Uralic language. Ante Aikio (2012) has already authored a pretty convincing essay about the starting point and fairly late timing of the spread and eventual branching of the Proto-Saamic "proper". From this point of view, BOO, for example, would be *way* too early for speakers of any form of Saami, or likely even a Uralic language for that matter — as for "Para-Uralic", well, who knows?
So, if there's a connection, it's more likely due to the Saami pretty effectively assimilating different pre-existing populations in Lakeland Finland and Lapland into the eventually wide-reaching Saami ethnolinguistic and cultural complex — as hinted at, e.g., by the substrata and Northern environment-related loanwords found in Saamic languages. Also, Aikio hypothesizes whether it could have been the Saami integrating into the trade networks of the time as a fur procurer and exporter that gave the decisive boost for the comparatively late but rapid spread of the culture and language(s). So, we could even be talking about a predominantly cultural and linguistic identity formed around a new innovative and dominant way of life.
Aikio, Ante (2012): An essay on Saami ethnolinguistic prehistory
Another Herculean effort with a wide scope. For a non specialist/expert it's pretty exceptional to have brought this much together. Without gushing, it's truly impressive.
I had posted some critical (though not unfriendly) comments on Razib Khan's substack, and following through after reading here I think that you've really put together what looks like (imho) a strong case. My own reading is rather limited to European geography, but certainly your focus on this area accords with what I've read and then some.
I think it will be interesting to see what the near future brings relating to the Corded Ware/Bell Beaker transition/expansion. This obviously relates to your lively discussion on Iberia as the time ranges covered examines what appears to be the "end times" for many of the cultures that were (or were related to) the original Bell Beaker cultures.
I find this fascinating because the Bell Beaker cultural package/phenomenon exploded out of Iberia (the Tagus estuary is one likely origin) around the turn of the millenium and spread to Eastern Europe within a couple centuries. Its spread was greatly advanced through cultural diffusion, in contrast to the EEFs and steppe pastoralist where we now know demic diffusion prevailed. Christiansen himself goes so far as to say that Corded Ware people simply adopted Bell Beaker culture in the same way that Yamnaya had adopted Corded Ware. I'm not sure I totally agree, but I'm hard pressed to argue against him. Thus spread Bell Beaker culture spread back west to Britain (where of course they replaced almost all male lineages genetically) and back even to Iberia itself under aegis of people with steppe ancestry. One can't help think the Bell Beakers were a victim of their own success!
I had raised an earlier question on Razib's substack as to an elucidation of this process and have since found some informative (though not definitive) literature. The Bell Beakers in Britain certainly seem to coextensive with a steppe ancestry demic diffusion - ie. post-Corded Ware peoples with steppe ancestry seem to have steam rolled the local male population in a short time. This is from Olalde, et al.'s 2018 paper in Nature. However, it's worth noting a few things. None of Olalde's aDNA samples came from the nexus of locations were copper exploration had some of its earliest successes: Ross Island in Ireland, etc. I would venture to say (cautiously of course) that Bell Beaker diffusion may actually have been demic-lite in nature in its earliest days as Iberians used their novel sailing prowess to reach Brittany, (present day) Cornwall and Ireland in search of copper ores - the archaeological evidence of which is ubiquitous in those parts.
However, under this "model" it's very possible that ore prospecting/exploitation was not something that left a ton of genetic signature as mining wasn't always (or even usually) associated with settlement. Prospectors (much like that 19th century counterparts) tended to come and leave when the ore was gone, perhaps within a few decades.
The ore trade, however, made the Iberian Beaker people's very prosperous (or at least their elites) and it stands to argue also impelled their cultural reach across Europe even if their DNA did not. Central European copper and bronze smithing took very different routes. But it makes for fascinating saga-telling to think of the Beaker people having this relatively advanced metal-working culture and being adopted by Corded Ware steppe pastoralists only to be, in some sense, overrun mere centuries later. Can't help but wondering about life in those times, and your vivid portrayal of their end in the 23rd century really informs both the record and the imagination.
I need to make a slight emendation to my comment above. I did not read Olalde et. al.'s paper closely enough (user error, lol). While the said paper didn't specifically use samples from the Ross Island location I referred to, it certainly DID have many samples from Southern England and Wales. A closer examination of the data reveals some very interesting facts:
1. All but a couple Bell Beaker (BB) samples from Britain were overwhelmingly imprinted with the Corded Ware Culture (CWC) genetic signature.
2. The BB associated range from ~2500BC to ~1600BC
3. There is a distinct, but coeval population of non-BB samples that are equally related to CWC genetically and whose samples date from a very similar date rage.
Imo the most straight-forward conclusion is that both BB inspired CWC-related indo-europeans (IE) AND "regular" CWC indo-europeans started settling in Britain at the same time, perhaps part of the same "rush" for metal related riches?
However, we still can't discount the possibility that non-IE BB people came to Britain/Ireland slightly before 2500BC to exploit copper deposits. In fact archaeologists of metal production still hold that the first to exploit copper deposits in Ireland were BB people from Iberia given the similarity of technical practices, related to ore types (metallurgical processes are HIGHLY dependent on ore type).
I would thus venture the following hypothesis: that the seafaring BB ppl came first to Britain from Iberia in search of metal deposits and effectively started a copper-rush - eventually being out-competed by IE speakers from the continent, all of whom were descended from CWC people, and some of whom had even adopted the BB way of life. In some ways this is analogous to Roman colonization of former Greek colonies (think Neapolis, Massilia, etc) where genetic Latins eventually superseded the Greeks, but had adopted major components of Greek culture.
Thanks for writing this and covering everything from Iberia to China. When I had mentioned Bronze Age Collapse/Sea Peoples to my friend, they reponsed with a, "psh, Bronze Age Collapse? So Med.-centric!" With this post, I can now show them that, actuallyyyy - some Stone/Bronze/Iron Age events/patterns were quite global!
Really interesting. Thank you for writing this. But your post also made me curious--did the effects of the "shift in global climate patterns that lasted about three centuries" spill over into the western hemisphere?
China don't have horses until very late,about Late Shang,horses became common,which erlitou culture(presumed Xia) don't have horses,there were 2 bones,which revealed to be wild horse bones,"Feilian(Qin's ancestor) is said good at walking,his son Elai have mighty strength,they both serve the king" means even in the end of Shang,horses are still rare thing,rely on foot messagers sometimes.
Wait, what??!! ... 'White People' didn't come about yet in the 23rd century BCE? the Old Europeans who built Stonehenge, the Indo-European speakers of the Ukrainian steppelands, they didn't look 'white' ?? What about East Asian and African people, did they exist yet?
What we would consider East Asians existed, albeit with a smaller range than now. East Africans were only just coming into being, and it's hard to say for west Africans due to lack of ancient DNA from the region.
Thanks for this whopper of a post, I genuinely wasn't sure you'd manage to sweep over the entire planet for this time period, but you managed it very well, just as advertised. Both wide in scope as well as synthetic.
Heroic effort. Thank you!
10/10 post, the breadth of areas covered is staggering. Any plans to make similar overviews of civilisational crises in other centuries?
yes I am working on a Bronze Age Collapse post
Stellar work as always Nemets! I'm loving the longform substack posts. But does this mean the end of the Twitter Spaces? They were great, I always caught up on them on youtube if I missed them live version
I should probably do some more. Could record and post them here too, rather than youtube.
That would be great, thanks. Haven't listened to your latest with Razib yet but looking forward to it
First of all, kudos! A major effort.
Now some potentially critical remarks on some fringe issues. Although I didn't have the time to trace many of your references to the "Saami" down to the actual mentions in the linked sources, I did get an uneasy feeling particularly at the point you referred to the Bolshoy Oleny Ostrov (BOO) findings.
I mean, "Saami/Sámi" today refer to certain groups of people speaking certain languages. So, in prehistorical context, it makes little sense to extend the use of the label to groups not likely to have spoken a Saamic, let alone Uralic language. Ante Aikio (2012) has already authored a pretty convincing essay about the starting point and fairly late timing of the spread and eventual branching of the Proto-Saamic "proper". From this point of view, BOO, for example, would be *way* too early for speakers of any form of Saami, or likely even a Uralic language for that matter — as for "Para-Uralic", well, who knows?
So, if there's a connection, it's more likely due to the Saami pretty effectively assimilating different pre-existing populations in Lakeland Finland and Lapland into the eventually wide-reaching Saami ethnolinguistic and cultural complex — as hinted at, e.g., by the substrata and Northern environment-related loanwords found in Saamic languages. Also, Aikio hypothesizes whether it could have been the Saami integrating into the trade networks of the time as a fur procurer and exporter that gave the decisive boost for the comparatively late but rapid spread of the culture and language(s). So, we could even be talking about a predominantly cultural and linguistic identity formed around a new innovative and dominant way of life.
Aikio, Ante (2012): An essay on Saami ethnolinguistic prehistory
Another Herculean effort with a wide scope. For a non specialist/expert it's pretty exceptional to have brought this much together. Without gushing, it's truly impressive.
I had posted some critical (though not unfriendly) comments on Razib Khan's substack, and following through after reading here I think that you've really put together what looks like (imho) a strong case. My own reading is rather limited to European geography, but certainly your focus on this area accords with what I've read and then some.
I think it will be interesting to see what the near future brings relating to the Corded Ware/Bell Beaker transition/expansion. This obviously relates to your lively discussion on Iberia as the time ranges covered examines what appears to be the "end times" for many of the cultures that were (or were related to) the original Bell Beaker cultures.
I find this fascinating because the Bell Beaker cultural package/phenomenon exploded out of Iberia (the Tagus estuary is one likely origin) around the turn of the millenium and spread to Eastern Europe within a couple centuries. Its spread was greatly advanced through cultural diffusion, in contrast to the EEFs and steppe pastoralist where we now know demic diffusion prevailed. Christiansen himself goes so far as to say that Corded Ware people simply adopted Bell Beaker culture in the same way that Yamnaya had adopted Corded Ware. I'm not sure I totally agree, but I'm hard pressed to argue against him. Thus spread Bell Beaker culture spread back west to Britain (where of course they replaced almost all male lineages genetically) and back even to Iberia itself under aegis of people with steppe ancestry. One can't help think the Bell Beakers were a victim of their own success!
I had raised an earlier question on Razib's substack as to an elucidation of this process and have since found some informative (though not definitive) literature. The Bell Beakers in Britain certainly seem to coextensive with a steppe ancestry demic diffusion - ie. post-Corded Ware peoples with steppe ancestry seem to have steam rolled the local male population in a short time. This is from Olalde, et al.'s 2018 paper in Nature. However, it's worth noting a few things. None of Olalde's aDNA samples came from the nexus of locations were copper exploration had some of its earliest successes: Ross Island in Ireland, etc. I would venture to say (cautiously of course) that Bell Beaker diffusion may actually have been demic-lite in nature in its earliest days as Iberians used their novel sailing prowess to reach Brittany, (present day) Cornwall and Ireland in search of copper ores - the archaeological evidence of which is ubiquitous in those parts.
However, under this "model" it's very possible that ore prospecting/exploitation was not something that left a ton of genetic signature as mining wasn't always (or even usually) associated with settlement. Prospectors (much like that 19th century counterparts) tended to come and leave when the ore was gone, perhaps within a few decades.
The ore trade, however, made the Iberian Beaker people's very prosperous (or at least their elites) and it stands to argue also impelled their cultural reach across Europe even if their DNA did not. Central European copper and bronze smithing took very different routes. But it makes for fascinating saga-telling to think of the Beaker people having this relatively advanced metal-working culture and being adopted by Corded Ware steppe pastoralists only to be, in some sense, overrun mere centuries later. Can't help but wondering about life in those times, and your vivid portrayal of their end in the 23rd century really informs both the record and the imagination.
I need to make a slight emendation to my comment above. I did not read Olalde et. al.'s paper closely enough (user error, lol). While the said paper didn't specifically use samples from the Ross Island location I referred to, it certainly DID have many samples from Southern England and Wales. A closer examination of the data reveals some very interesting facts:
1. All but a couple Bell Beaker (BB) samples from Britain were overwhelmingly imprinted with the Corded Ware Culture (CWC) genetic signature.
2. The BB associated range from ~2500BC to ~1600BC
3. There is a distinct, but coeval population of non-BB samples that are equally related to CWC genetically and whose samples date from a very similar date rage.
Imo the most straight-forward conclusion is that both BB inspired CWC-related indo-europeans (IE) AND "regular" CWC indo-europeans started settling in Britain at the same time, perhaps part of the same "rush" for metal related riches?
However, we still can't discount the possibility that non-IE BB people came to Britain/Ireland slightly before 2500BC to exploit copper deposits. In fact archaeologists of metal production still hold that the first to exploit copper deposits in Ireland were BB people from Iberia given the similarity of technical practices, related to ore types (metallurgical processes are HIGHLY dependent on ore type).
I would thus venture the following hypothesis: that the seafaring BB ppl came first to Britain from Iberia in search of metal deposits and effectively started a copper-rush - eventually being out-competed by IE speakers from the continent, all of whom were descended from CWC people, and some of whom had even adopted the BB way of life. In some ways this is analogous to Roman colonization of former Greek colonies (think Neapolis, Massilia, etc) where genetic Latins eventually superseded the Greeks, but had adopted major components of Greek culture.
Fantastic work of synthesis
Thanks for writing this and covering everything from Iberia to China. When I had mentioned Bronze Age Collapse/Sea Peoples to my friend, they reponsed with a, "psh, Bronze Age Collapse? So Med.-centric!" With this post, I can now show them that, actuallyyyy - some Stone/Bronze/Iron Age events/patterns were quite global!
Really interesting. Thank you for writing this. But your post also made me curious--did the effects of the "shift in global climate patterns that lasted about three centuries" spill over into the western hemisphere?
I would imagine so, but I'm not sure to what degree.
Very interesting and quite scary too. This can happen to our civilization and the country too. Some it's already happening.
Big thumbs up!
Good stuff.
Good task, Nemets!
Amazing.
Have you considered using the Holocene calendar?
China don't have horses until very late,about Late Shang,horses became common,which erlitou culture(presumed Xia) don't have horses,there were 2 bones,which revealed to be wild horse bones,"Feilian(Qin's ancestor) is said good at walking,his son Elai have mighty strength,they both serve the king" means even in the end of Shang,horses are still rare thing,rely on foot messagers sometimes.
Wait, what??!! ... 'White People' didn't come about yet in the 23rd century BCE? the Old Europeans who built Stonehenge, the Indo-European speakers of the Ukrainian steppelands, they didn't look 'white' ?? What about East Asian and African people, did they exist yet?
What we would consider East Asians existed, albeit with a smaller range than now. East Africans were only just coming into being, and it's hard to say for west Africans due to lack of ancient DNA from the region.