A very interesting piece. Reminds me in some ways of Spengler, in a good way.
Being reminded of the natural forces that have driven human beings for the past 15 thousand years helps put our present political-ideological window in perspective.
Sadly, the dark side of human nature (war, slavery, primal fears & the desire to dominate & control) is still too prevalent.
Are you using "Indo-European" for Yamnaya in some of this? Don't Indo-Europeans comprise a much larger group than the Indo-European speaking Yamnaya who swept out of the Pontic Steppe and across Europe ~5000 ya?
One thing that I have recently been thinking about is that often collapses are caused by what we rely on to survive failing. This seems to also be the case for our civilization.
So my question is, after seeing human civilization rise and fall several times now, what can we do to make sure another fall does not happen? What can we rely on to keep our civilization going?
Paragraph 2 'wheeled transportation yet to exist'. See cart tracks in Malta etc, with what really looks like axle end scrapes in deep ruts. In addition to age of solid stone some go into the sea indicates pre-younger/dryas. The great eraser really cleaned the slate.
Would you recommend any books that offer similar projections for the civilizational future of the North American continent, now that agriculture is here to stay?
Our continent seems like the reverse-Eurasia in many respects. A major mountain range divides it, while the forest line broadly runs north-south as opposed to the Russian east-west forest line that’s led to the steppe being so influential as an Eurasian highway. North America has much less coastline exposed to the world ocean (more like Africa) and is therefore highly continental, with little Mediterranean and Atlantic climate outside the Pacific coastline. Even the southern states can get colder than much of southern Europe in the winter. Truly a unique biogeography and I wonder what societies it might tend to develop in a hypothetical “post-Eighth Age”.
On the other hand, North America does have the highly navigable Mississippi river system. For example, the Mississippi is navigable by barges as far as Minnesota.
I’m guessing Mississippi River America would have become much more of a population center had industrial progress not enabled massive population growth in the West, Southwest and urban centers.
Peter, I've written a much longer version of this historical arc, and in some rather excruciating detail, and I have to say that you've done a far better job, in shorter form, of communicating that history accessibly and 'free of erro bias and agenda". Nice work. (Saved to my Papers collection, added to the bibliography of my history draft.)
I don't think it is presumptuous or inappropriate at all. Those groups were living close to others, yet didn't intermarry with them for thousands of years.
A very interesting piece. Reminds me in some ways of Spengler, in a good way.
Being reminded of the natural forces that have driven human beings for the past 15 thousand years helps put our present political-ideological window in perspective.
Sadly, the dark side of human nature (war, slavery, primal fears & the desire to dominate & control) is still too prevalent.
Expand this into a book, please.
❤️
This was really great, thank you. Will bookmark and re-read it several times as a refresher.
Do you not think the rapid uptick in mass migrations into Europe mark the end of the 7th Age and beginning of a new 8th Age?
they could, but I doubt it. Bioerror is the most likely civilizational risk I think.
What do you mean by bioerror?
Now do China. :)
I know almost nothing about East Asia unfortunately
Great synthesis. Id recommend “The Scythian Empire: Central Eurasia and the birth of the Classical age” - would be right up your alley.
Are you using "Indo-European" for Yamnaya in some of this? Don't Indo-Europeans comprise a much larger group than the Indo-European speaking Yamnaya who swept out of the Pontic Steppe and across Europe ~5000 ya?
Yes - Indo-European in this post can refer to Corded Ware, Yamnaya, Bell Beaker, Catacomb, Usatovo, or Suvorovo cultures
I don't offer those cart tracks as evidence of people existing when that stone was natural mud. The tricky bit is lack of draft animal foot prints.
Great article!
One thing that I have recently been thinking about is that often collapses are caused by what we rely on to survive failing. This seems to also be the case for our civilization.
So my question is, after seeing human civilization rise and fall several times now, what can we do to make sure another fall does not happen? What can we rely on to keep our civilization going?
I think another fall is inevitable, but political decentralization and localized supply chains help areas weather collapses better.
Quite fascinating.
So, All societal/civilizational collapses are Global-Coldening, *NOT* Global-Warming.
Six times. For now, for now - in recent times.
Global warming meant prosperity & expansion.
Now we can reflect on just some 12.000 years.
But, What if the story of collapses & rebirth goes back a lot further & deeper ?
(advanced civilisations existed and disappeared without trace long before - pure speculation)
Can you direct me to a reference to the burnings in Karnataka you mentioned in the article?
It's from "The Archaeology of South Asia: From the Indus to Asoka” by Robin Coningham and Ruth Young https://twitter.com/Peter_Nimitz/status/1420935212242853892?s=20
Thank you so much! I really enjoyed your article as well as your podcast with Razib Khan
Paragraph 2 'wheeled transportation yet to exist'. See cart tracks in Malta etc, with what really looks like axle end scrapes in deep ruts. In addition to age of solid stone some go into the sea indicates pre-younger/dryas. The great eraser really cleaned the slate.
Would you recommend any books that offer similar projections for the civilizational future of the North American continent, now that agriculture is here to stay?
Our continent seems like the reverse-Eurasia in many respects. A major mountain range divides it, while the forest line broadly runs north-south as opposed to the Russian east-west forest line that’s led to the steppe being so influential as an Eurasian highway. North America has much less coastline exposed to the world ocean (more like Africa) and is therefore highly continental, with little Mediterranean and Atlantic climate outside the Pacific coastline. Even the southern states can get colder than much of southern Europe in the winter. Truly a unique biogeography and I wonder what societies it might tend to develop in a hypothetical “post-Eighth Age”.
Some of Poul Anderson's fiction novels talk about a future North America - "Corridors of Time" and "There Will be Time"
On the other hand, North America does have the highly navigable Mississippi river system. For example, the Mississippi is navigable by barges as far as Minnesota.
I’m guessing Mississippi River America would have become much more of a population center had industrial progress not enabled massive population growth in the West, Southwest and urban centers.
Check out “Cracker Culture” by McWhiney
Peter, I've written a much longer version of this historical arc, and in some rather excruciating detail, and I have to say that you've done a far better job, in shorter form, of communicating that history accessibly and 'free of erro bias and agenda". Nice work. (Saved to my Papers collection, added to the bibliography of my history draft.)
Don't you think using the term xenophobic is presumptuous? It's stimulating but maybe inappropriate?
I don't think it is presumptuous or inappropriate at all. Those groups were living close to others, yet didn't intermarry with them for thousands of years.
But maybe xenophobic ones were the hunter-gatherers